The fixed vs variable debate comes around every quarter when Ofgem announces the new price cap. In April 2026, the answer is clearer than it has been for some time — here is the full picture.

Where the Cap Sits Right Now

The Q2 2026 Ofgem price cap equates to approximately £1,849/year for a typical household — electricity at 24.5p/kWh and gas at 6.24p/kWh. This is the rate you pay on a standard variable tariff if you are with a mainstream supplier.

What Fixed Deals Look Like in April 2026

The best fixed tariffs available in April 2026 sit 3-6% below the current cap rate — equating to savings of £55-£110/year for a typical household on a 12-month fix. The most competitive deals come from Octopus Energy, E.ON Next, and EDF, with rates around 23-24p/kWh for electricity and 5.9-6.1p/kWh for gas. These deals require a smart meter in most cases.

The Forecast That Changes Everything

Ofgem’s Q3 2026 cap announcement (expected late May) is the key variable. Early analyst consensus suggests a 3-5% rise from July — driven by wholesale gas market movements. If the cap rises to around £1,900-£1,950/year equivalent, fixing now at £1,740-£1,794/year looks very attractive. If it falls instead, you would be better on variable. The weight of current evidence favours fixing.

The Verdict

For most households in April 2026: fix for 12 months if you can find a deal 4%+ below the current cap. The combination of below-cap rates now and a likely Q3 rise creates a clear window. Check exit fees carefully — £25-£50 per fuel to leave early can erode the saving if you switch again mid-contract. Compare the best fixed deals available today.